ECA funding reached a record $21bn during 2009 - an estimated one third of the total value of all Boeing and Airbus deliveries, according to DVB Bank.

“The public authorities, through the support of the Export Credit Agencies, have been extremely proactive and have ultimately almost doubled the ECA commitments compared to 2008,” Bertrand Grabowski, MD of DVB Bank said.

But can it continue? ECAs last year helped plug a funding gap to the extent that it was almost unnoticeable, yet airlines’ financial woes will continue well into 2010. According to DVB, the value of deliveries during 2010 is $60bn and non-‘prime carriers’ will seek some $30bn from what Grabowski refers to as the “lenders of last resort” – that’s banks and ECAs. And it’s not just new deliveries that need to be financed, its payments on existing deals too: “At DVB, we are seeing more and more of these transactions collapsing due to the lack of financing," said Grabowski.

“Since many banks will still face capital restrictions in 2010, we do not expect a large increase in the lending activities of traditional aviation banks compared to last year. To avoid again a funding gap in 2010, the ECAs would have to provide as much support as last year.”

Will they step up again? It is perhaps the biggest question we face this year, and the answer is awaited with an uneasy anticipation.

mary-anne.baldwin@ubmaviation.com